Super Bowl XLIV – Final Four

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With the Super Bowl a matter of weeks away, I thought I would run through the current best bets for the last four and who I will be picking to go all the way from a value perspective.

The focus will be on the stars this weekend as the media whips itself up into its usual frenzy. Jeremy Shockey, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and other big names will be in the spotlight but often in these pressure games, the stars can falter and lesser known players can step up and win you the game.

So who do you go for now if your futures pick has already bitten the dust.

Colts: odds range +100 to +120

People like to watch the Colts – who doesn’t – you get to see Peyton Manning, the best quarter-back in the game throw the football. But I won’t be betting them at the price. Even money or thereabouts is far too short for me and I cannot have them at that price.

York Jets: odds range +700 to +800.

The New York lives and breathes defense and it has taken them this far. Who would have thought it….It is highly like that the Colts will have too much ammunition for them – just look at the prices – but I would far rather have a small bet on the Jets than a big bet on the Colts – to get a similar return.

New Orleans Saints: odds range +200.

The Arizona Cardinals were simply outplayed in pretty much every department against the Saints, but they had played a game in the preceding week, beating Green Bay, whereas New Orleans had a fortnight to rest up and think about their opponents. I would take the Saints at +200 before I took the Colts at +100 – but I would want at least +250 on the Saints before I bet them and I don’t think I will find that. So I am leaving the Saints alone.

Minnesota Vikings: odds range +450 to +500

Road stats tell the story here – it probably explains the prices available too. The Vikings are a decent team at home but if they were playing at home you wouldn’t be getting the price!

It could be a cruel day for Minnesota – even if they make the Super Bowl – their Bowl record in terms of ‘appearances vs wins’ stands at 4-0, with most of those losses occurring pretty much consecutively during the seventies. It reminds me of the Bills and their four consecutive final losses. Still, Brett Favre might still have a say and take them all the way.

I won’t be taking any short prices about teams now. I’ll be splitting my stakes between Minnesota and the Jets and hoping that Minnesota can get it together in a ‘one-off’ game on the road and that the Jets take the Jets out of their normal comfort zone.

write by Tryphena

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